Influence of geospatial resolution on sociodemographic predictors of COVID-19 in Massachusetts.

PURPOSE: When studying health risks across a large geographic region such as a state or province, researchers often assume that finer-resolution data on health outcomes and risk factors will improve inferences by avoiding ecological bias and other issues associated with geographic aggregation. However, coarser-resolution data (e.g., at the town or county-level) are more commonly publicly available and packaged for easier access, allowing for rapid analyses. The advantages and limitations of using finer-resolution data, which may improve precision at the cost of time spent gaining access and processing data, have not been considered in detail to date. METHODS: We systematically examine the implications of conducting town-level mixed-effect regression analyses versus census-tract-level analyses to study sociodemographic predictors of COVID-19 in Massachusetts. In a series of negative binomial regressions, we vary the spatial resolution of the outcome, the resolution of variable selection, and the resolution of the random effect to allow for more direct comparison across models. RESULTS: We find stability in some estimates across scenarios, changes in magnitude, direction, and significance in others, and tighter confidence intervals on the census-tract level. Conclusions regarding sociodemographic predictors are robust when regions of high concentration remain consistent across town and census-tract resolutions. CONCLUSIONS: Inferences about high-risk populations may be misleading if derived from town- or county-resolution data, especially for covariates that capture small subgroups (e.g., small racial minority populations) or are geographically concentrated or skewed (e.g., % college students). Our analysis can help inform more rapid and efficient use of public health data by identifying when finer-resolution data are truly most informative, or when coarser-resolution data may be misleading.

Inequities in COVID-19 vaccine and booster coverage across Massachusetts ZIP codes after the emergence of Omicron: A population-based cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Inequities in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine and booster coverage may contribute to future disparities in morbidity and mortality within and between Massachusetts (MA) communities. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study of primary series vaccination and booster coverage 18 months into the general population vaccine rollout. We obtained public-use data on residents vaccinated and boosted by ZIP code (and by age group: 5 to 19, 20 to 39, 40 to 64, 65+) from MA Department of Public Health, as of October 10, 2022. We constructed population denominators for postal ZIP codes by aggregating census tract population estimates from the 2015-2019 American Community Survey. We excluded nonresidential ZIP codes and the smallest ZIP codes containing 1% of the state's population. We mapped variation in ZIP code-level primary series vaccine and booster coverage and used regression models to evaluate the association of these measures with ZIP code-level socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Because age is strongly associated with COVID-19 severity and vaccine access/uptake, we assessed whether observed socioeconomic and racial/ethnic inequities persisted after adjusting for age composition and plotted age-specific vaccine and booster coverage by deciles of ZIP code characteristics. We analyzed data on 418 ZIP codes. We observed wide geographic variation in primary series vaccination and booster rates, with marked inequities by ZIP code-level education, median household income, essential worker share, and racial/ethnic composition. In age-stratified analyses, primary series vaccine coverage was very high among the elderly. However, we found large inequities in vaccination rates among younger adults and children, and very large inequities in booster rates for all age groups. In multivariable regression models, each 10 percentage point increase in "percent college educated" was associated with a 5.1 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.9 to 6.3, p < 0.001) percentage point increase in primary series vaccine coverage and a 5.4 (95% CI 4.5 to 6.4, p < 0.001) percentage point increase in booster coverage. Although ZIP codes with higher "percent Black/Latino/Indigenous" and higher "percent essential workers" had lower vaccine coverage (-0.8, 95% CI -1.3 to -0.3, p < 0.01; -5.5, 95% CI -7.3 to -3.8, p < 0.001), these associations became strongly positive after adjusting for age and education (1.9, 95% CI 1.0 to 2.8, p < 0.001; 4.8, 95% CI 2.6 to 7.1, p < 0.001), consistent with high demand for vaccines among Black/Latino/Indigenous and essential worker populations within age and education groups. Strong positive associations between "median household income" and vaccination were attenuated after adjusting for age. Limitations of the study include imprecision of the estimated population denominators, lack of individual-level sociodemographic data, and potential for residential ZIP code misreporting in vaccination data. CONCLUSIONS: Eighteen months into MA's general population vaccine rollout, there remained large inequities in COVID-19 primary series vaccine and booster coverage across MA ZIP codes, particularly among younger age groups. Disparities in vaccination coverage by racial/ethnic composition were statistically explained by differences in age and education levels, which may mediate the effects of structural racism on vaccine uptake. Efforts to increase booster coverage are needed to limit future socioeconomic and racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

Missing Race and Ethnicity Data among COVID-19 Cases in Massachusetts.

Infectious disease surveillance frequently lacks complete information on race and ethnicity, making it difficult to identify health inequities. Greater awareness of this issue has occurred due to the COVID-19 pandemic, during which inequities in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were reported but with evidence of substantial missing demographic details. Although the problem of missing race and ethnicity data in COVID-19 cases has been well documented, neither its spatiotemporal variation nor its particular drivers have been characterized. Using individual-level data on confirmed COVID-19 cases in Massachusetts from March 2020 to February 2021, we show how missing race and ethnicity data: (1) varied over time, appearing to increase sharply during two different periods of rapid case growth; (2) differed substantially between towns, indicating a nonrandom distribution; and (3) was associated significantly with several individual- and town-level characteristics in a mixed-effects regression model, suggesting a combination of personal and infrastructural drivers of missing data that persisted despite state and federal data-collection mandates. We discuss how a variety of factors may contribute to persistent missing data but could potentially be mitigated in future contexts.

Changes in Ultrafine Particle Concentrations near a Major Airport Following Reduced Transportation Activity during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Mobility reductions following the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States were higher, and sustained longer, for aviation than ground transportation activity. We evaluate changes in ultrafine particle (UFP, Dp < 100 nm, a marker of fuel-combustion emissions) concentrations at a site near Logan Airport (Boston, Massachusetts) in relation to mobility reductions. Several years of particle number concentration (PNC) data prepandemic [1/2017-9/2018] and during the state-of-emergency (SOE) phase of the pandemic [4/2020-6/2021] were analyzed to assess the emissions reduction impact on PNC, controlling for season and wind direction. Mean PNC was 48% lower during the first three months of the SOE than prepandemic, consistent with 74% lower flight activity and 39% (local)-51% (highway) lower traffic volume. Traffic volume and mean PNC for all wind directions returned to prepandemic levels by 6/2021; however, when the site was downwind from Logan Airport, PNC remained lower than prepandemic levels (by 23%), consistent with lower-than-normal flight activity (44% below prepandemic levels). Our study shows the effect of pandemic-related mobility changes on PNC in a near-airport community, and it distinguishes aviation-related and ground transportation source contributions.

Time-varying associations between COVID-19 case incidence and community-level sociodemographic, occupational, environmental, and mobility risk factors in Massachusetts.

BACKGROUND: Associations between community-level risk factors and COVID-19 incidence have been used to identify vulnerable subpopulations and target interventions, but the variability of these associations over time remains largely unknown. We evaluated variability in the associations between community-level predictors and COVID-19 case incidence in 351 cities and towns in Massachusetts from March to October 2020. METHODS: Using publicly available sociodemographic, occupational, environmental, and mobility datasets, we developed mixed-effect, adjusted Poisson regression models to depict associations between these variables and town-level COVID-19 case incidence data across five distinct time periods from March to October 2020. We examined town-level demographic variables, including population proportions by race, ethnicity, and age, as well as factors related to occupation, housing density, economic vulnerability, air pollution (PM2.5), and institutional facilities. We calculated incidence rate ratios (IRR) associated with these predictors and compared these values across the multiple time periods to assess variability in the observed associations over time. RESULTS: Associations between key predictor variables and town-level incidence varied across the five time periods. We observed reductions over time in the association with percentage of Black residents (IRR = 1.12 [95%CI: 1.12-1.13]) in early spring, IRR = 1.01 [95%CI: 1.00-1.01] in early fall) and COVID-19 incidence. The association with number of long-term care facility beds per capita also decreased over time (IRR = 1.28 [95%CI: 1.26-1.31] in spring, IRR = 1.07 [95%CI: 1.05-1.09] in fall). Controlling for other factors, towns with higher percentages of essential workers experienced elevated incidences of COVID-19 throughout the pandemic (e.g., IRR = 1.30 [95%CI: 1.27-1.33] in spring, IRR = 1.20 [95%CI: 1.17-1.22] in fall). Towns with higher proportions of Latinx residents also had sustained elevated incidence over time (IRR = 1.19 [95%CI: 1.18-1.21] in spring, IRR = 1.14 [95%CI: 1.13-1.15] in fall). CONCLUSIONS: Town-level COVID-19 risk factors varied with time in this study. In Massachusetts, racial (but not ethnic) disparities in COVID-19 incidence may have decreased across the first 8 months of the pandemic, perhaps indicating greater success in risk mitigation in selected communities. Our approach can be used to evaluate effectiveness of public health interventions and target specific mitigation efforts on the community level.

Community predictors of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Massachusetts: Evaluating changes over time using geospatially refined data.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for targeted local interventions given substantial heterogeneity within cities and counties. Publicly available case data are typically aggregated to the city or county level to protect patient privacy, but more granular data are necessary to identify and act upon community-level risk factors that can change over time. METHODS: Individual COVID-19 case and mortality data from Massachusetts were geocoded to residential addresses and aggregated into two time periods: "Phase 1" (March-June 2020) and "Phase 2" (September 2020 to February 2021). Institutional cases associated with long-term care facilities, prisons, or homeless shelters were identified using address data and modeled separately. Census tract sociodemographic and occupational predictors were drawn from the 2015-2019 American Community Survey. We used mixed-effects negative binomial regression to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs), accounting for town-level spatial autocorrelation. RESULTS: Case incidence was elevated in census tracts with higher proportions of Black and Latinx residents, with larger associations in Phase 1 than Phase 2. Case incidence associated with proportion of essential workers was similarly elevated in both Phases. Mortality IRRs had differing patterns from case IRRs, decreasing less substantially between Phases for Black and Latinx populations and increasing between Phases for proportion of essential workers. Mortality models excluding institutional cases yielded stronger associations for age, race/ethnicity, and essential worker status. CONCLUSIONS: Geocoded home address data can allow for nuanced analyses of community disease patterns, identification of high-risk subgroups, and exclusion of institutional cases to comprehensively reflect community risk.

Descriptive characterization of sound levels in an environmental justice city before and during a global pandemic.

Many environmental justice communities face elevated exposures to multiple stressors, given biases in urban and environmental policy and planning. This paper aims to evaluate sound level exposure in a densely populated environmental justice city in close proximity to major roadways, a nearby airport and high levels of industrial activity. In this study we collected various sound level metrics to evaluate the loudness and frequency composition of the acoustical environment in Chelsea, Massachusetts, USA. A total of 29 week-long sites were collected from October 2019 to June 2020, a time period that also included the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, which drastically altered activity patterns and corresponding sound level exposures. We found that Chelsea is exposed to high levels of sound, both day and night (65 dB (A), and 80 dB and 90 dB for low frequency, and infrasound sound levels). A spectral analysis shows that 63 Hz was the dominant frequency. Distance to major roads and flight activity (both arrivals and departures) were most strongly correlated with all metrics, most notably with metrics describing contributing from lower frequencies. Overall, we found similar patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic but at levels up to 10 dB lower. Our results demonstrate the importance of noise exposure assessments in environmental justice communities and the importance of using additional metrics to describe communities inundated with significant air, road, and industrial sound levels. It also provides a snapshot of how much quieter communities can be with careful and intentional urban and environmental policy and planning.

Financial hardship and health risk behavior during COVID-19 in a large US national sample of women.

COVID-19 has caused over 300,000 US deaths thus far, but its long-term health consequences are not clear. Policies to contain the pandemic have led to widespread economic problems, which likely increase stress and resulting health risk behaviors, particularly among women, who have been hardest hit both by job loss and caregiving responsibilities. Further, women with pre-existing disadvantage (e.g., those without health insurance) may be most at risk for stress and consequent health risk behavior. Our objective was to estimate the associations between financial stressors from COVID-19 and health risk behavior changes since COVID-19, with potential effect modification by insurance status. We used multilevel logistic regression to assess the relationships between COVID-19-related financial stressors (job loss, decreases in pay, trouble paying bills) and changes in health risk behavior (less exercise, sleep, and healthy eating; more smoking/vaping and drinking alcohol), controlling for both individual-level and zip code-level confounders, among 90,971 US women who completed an online survey in March-April 2020. Almost 40% of women reported one or more COVID-19-related financial stressors. Each financial stressor was significantly associated with higher odds of each type of health risk behavior change. Overall, reporting one or more financial stressors was associated with 56% higher odds (OR = 1.56; 95% CI: 1.51, 1.60) of reporting two or more health risk behavior changes. This association was even stronger among women with no health insurance (OR = 2.46; 95% CI: 1.97, 3.07). COVID-19-related economic stress is thus linked to shifts in health risk behaviors among women, which may have physical health consequences for years to come. Further, the relationship between financial hardship and health risk behavior among women may be modified by health insurance status, as a marker for broader socioeconomic context and resources. The most socioeconomically vulnerable women are likely at highest risk for long-term health effects of COVID-19 financial consequences.